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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers improving in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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