A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
